Investment Review - March 2022

I didn't get around to posting the end-of-year results at the time, but on 31-Dec-21 the combined portfolio stood at an all-time high and the 2021 full-year return was +8.2%.    

On the face of it, not a bad result for the year but with UK RPI inflation this month also running at 8.2%, then it seems as if that'll be the minimum level of annual growth required for the next few years just to keep pace ... 

On the plus side, I didn't suffer at all from the panic seen over the last six months by holders of the likes of Fundsmith and SMT etc, because I've never been over-exposed to the Nasdaq and its so-called 'tech' stocks. 

Here's the combined portfolio position on 31-Mar-22 :-

Financial Planning - 2022 Annual Review

It's been a long while since my last post, what with spending a few months in Europe in the van during the winter, including being away over the Christmas period.

Anyway, we're now 9 full years into the grand plan - see posts passim - and here are the usual two graphs of progress against the 2013 targets.

Investment Review - September 2021

 Here's the combined portfolio summary as at 30 September :-

Investment Review - June 2021

I'm posting this brief review several weeks later than usual - I've been very busy on many fronts - but here's the Combined Portfolio spreadsheet summary at close of business on 30 June 2021 :-

click on the graphic for a larger image ...

Financial Planning - 2021 Annual Review

The end of March represented the 8-year point in our 10-year term 'Grand Plan'.  Here are the usual two graph plots:-

Savings Pot to Mar-21

SIPP Pot to Mar-21

There's been a good recovery from this time last year ...

Investment Review - March 2021

 Here's the usual spreadsheet updated after the market close on 31 March :-

I've been busy on many fronts during this first quarter of the year, so I've only looked at the portfolio on the last day of each month and on those specific dates between when dividend payments arrived.

Investment Review - December 2020

Another year over, and here's the final quarterly investment review of 2020.   Let's start with the combined portfolio summary sheet, updated at the early market close on 31 December :-

Annual Spending Review - 2020

Well, 2020 is almost over.  Here's where all the money went, in what turned out to be a very unusual year for our spending patterns :-

click on the graphic for a larger image

See previous reviews for the 'Rules', e.g. the 2019 review ...

As usual, the graphic shows the highest spending categories for 2020 in descending order from the left, with the equivalent 2019 and 2018 percentages alongside.

Investment Review - September 2020

Here's the regular quarterly update with valuations on 30 September :-

click on the graphic for a larger image ...

Investment Review - June 2020

Here's the combined portfolio summary sheet updated on 30 June :-

click on the graphic for a larger image ...

Financial Planning - 2020 Review

We're now seven years into the 10-year plan, and so here are the usual two graphs :-

SAVINGS POT to Mar-20

SIPP POT to Mar-20

After a very good year in 2019, we had been creeping ever closer to the targets, which will be met when the combined portfolio reaches a 225% increase over its March 2013 baseline value.  

And then 2020 arrived ...

Investment Review - March 2020

Well, that first quarter of 2020 was certainly interesting ...

For a change, this time we'll lead with the progress graph rather than the spreadsheet summary.

(click on any of the images for a larger view)

In this first period of 2020, I've had three consecutive months of negative investment returns (-0.9%, -4.1% and a whopping -7.9% in March), resulting in large falls in the combined portfolio value.    

Mind you, in the middle of March the monthly return looked like it could possibly end up at -15% or even worse, but a bounce from the start of the fourth week means the portfolio value today is back to the same level it was in February 2019.  

But I'd been waiting for some sort of a dip, even though its size was totally unexpected, and so I've used some of the cash in the accounts to buy more equity funds.

There may well be more more falls to come in this slump, and many businesses will likely never recover from the effects of the forced closures, but from within the depths of today's doom and gloom there still seems to be upside potential for equities.

The glass is still half full.

Not waving, but drowning ...

The huge scale of the stock market falls over the last three weeks has actually resulted in two of my individual brokerage accounts being underwater when compared to the initial sums invested.

Below is the performance of each of the accounts, simply showing their current value against all of the cash ever added to them - the dates in brackets are the periods in which contributions were made.   They're not adjusted for inflation or anything else ...

• ISA 1 (2007-2010), +79.8%

• ISA 2 (2010-2013), +0.8%

• ISA 3 (2013-2017), +15.2%

• ISA 4 (2017-2020),  -9.4%

• SIPP (2010-2020),  -3.9%

Thoughts on the Investment Portfolio ...

In the last couple of years, it's fair to say we've experienced both good and bad periods of investment performance.

Today, the FTSE100 is hovering around 6,000 which is a year-to-date fall of 20%, but my combined portfolio return is 'only' down by 7.5%, so I suppose it's not doing too badly in the grand scheme of things.

Psychologically, it's best to think of losses in percentage terms because even 7.5% represents a shitload of the actual folding stuff !  

So what have we learnt ?


1)  Well, some holdings don't seem to contribute much to the portfolio under any circumstances :-

RCP.L was bought a few years ago as a 'defensive' holding, but despite its track record over longer time periods it hasn't done very much at all for my portfolio.  It doesn't throw off anything significant in terms of a dividend, it doesn't produce much of a capital gain during rising markets (fair enough) but it didn't provide downside protection during the recent sharp slump either, falling by almost the same amount as the markets. 

Although to be fair, it hasn't actually lost me money yet in nominal terms at least, it certainly hasn't displayed the more defensive qualities I'd expected in terms of holding onto at least some of its gains from the good times, which is my own fault for not sufficiently researching its composition.  I might as well have just kept the cash in the accounts for several years.

However, I'm keeping an eye on it now - when / if the markets return to some sort of normality, I'd expect RCP's price to have risen too, due to its equity components and maybe the re-establishment of a premium to its NAV (although that could take a long time for many of the stricken ITs).  I'll then probably sell out and either hold the proceeds as cash or re-invest in something like CGT.L.

The end of the world as we know it ?

Well, the stock markets around the world have certainly suffered a rout this week.

Last Friday, 21 February, the FTSE100 closed at 7,404.  It closed today at 6,581 representing a one-week fall of 11.1% and now dipping into 'correction' territory. 

run away, run away !!

Today's the last working day of the month, so as usual I've updated my combined portfolio spreadsheets and the summary doesn't make very pleasant reading.   And until Monday of this week, February had seemed quite a decent month !

My portfolio return for February was -4.1%, and is -5.0% since the beginning of the year.  It's holding up better than the FTSE100 but is still well down in absolute cash terms (this -4.1% is the biggest monthly fall I've encountered in the seven years since I started tracking everything properly - the previous worst month had been -4.0% in August 2015).

But isn't this slump in the equity markets exactly what we've all been waiting for, at least those of us still in the accumulation phase ? 

So, how best to capitalise on what could either be a time-limited buying opportunity or a razor-sharp falling knife ? 

Investment Review - December 2019

Welcome to this end of 2019 round-up of the investment portfolio.   I seem to be making a habit of reporting these quarterly reviews whilst on holiday - this year, we decided to take the first of our longer winter breaks around a week earlier than usual, so we're celebrating the New Year in the warmth and sunshine.

Anyway, here's the latest spreadsheet based on data from the early market closing time on 31 December 2019 :-

click on the table for a larger image ...

Annual Spending Review - 2019

Well, it's that time of year again.  Here's my regular review showing broadly where all the money was spent in 2019.   I'm posting this a few days earlier than usual, because we're off on our travels again very soon ...

car purchase costs included ....

click on the graphic for a larger image ...

Smaller Positions within the Portfolio ...

Not for the first time, I've been looking at some of the components that make up the very lowest weightings of my combined portfolio. 

I've mentioned the prospect of 'consolidation' in several quarterly reviews over the years.  However, apart from the absolute dog that is Dekel Agri-Vision (DKL.L, formerly DekelOil), and the well-documented freefall down the weightings by WPCT.L, I can't see any good reason to sell out of these other positions, however small they may now be in the grand scheme of things.

Based on the latest published September 2019 Review, there are eight holdings of less than 2% of the total portfolio valuation, including the two I've mentioned above.  These others were all bought some time ago, when the portfolio value was smaller and their relative weightings were therefore much higher.

Investment Review - September 2019

Greetings from the warmth and sunshine - we're currently on holiday in the Mediterranean for three weeks, and we've already escaped from some prolonged heavy rain at home.  I can see via the IP video cameras that it's still pissing down there as I write this post - I'm pleased I cleaned out all the gutters before we left ...

And fortunately we didn't travel with Thomas Cook although there are quite a few people in this particular hotel who did.  The younger generations seem a bit stressed out by it all, but the older ones aren't bothered, they're hoping for a few extra days in the sun - the benefits of not having to rush back home simply to turn up for work !

Anyway, here's the usual portfolio update at the end of September 2019 :- 

Sirius Minerals plc: SXX.L - a warning from history

It seems an appropriate time to revisit this post from more than six years ago ...

https://eaglesfeartoperch.blogspot.com/2013/01/aim-stocks-what-to-watch-out-for.html